Even having explored Prof. Alex Visscher’s published MatLab code for a week or two now, with UK data, even I am surprised at how well the model is matching up to published UK data so far (on April 18th 2020).
I have reported my previous work a couple of times, once relating to the modelling equations, at 7 Compartment modelling, Alex Visscher, and once on the nature of the models on this kind of work, and the r0 number in particular, at SIR models and R0.
I’ll just present the charts produced my my version of the model for now. One chart is with linear scales, and the other with a log y-axis to base 10 (each main gridline is 10x the previous one):
We can see that the upcoming acid test will be as the case numbers (and associated death rates) begin to fall, thanks to the social distancing, working from home and other measures people are being asked to take (successfully, in general, at the moment).
The new consideration (new in public, at least) is the question of whether there will be a vaccine, how well it might work, for how long immunity might last, and whether there will be re-infection, and at what rate. If there is no pharmaceutical resolution, or only a partial one, these single phase infection models will need to develop, and, as we saw in my last post at The potential cyclical future pandemic, a cyclical repetition of a lockdown/epidemic loop might look the most likely outcome for a while, until the vaccine point is resolved.
Meanwhile, this single phase model flattens out at a little over 39,000 deaths. I hope for the sake of everyone that the model turns out to be pessimistic.
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[…] as I have been looking at the fit of my current UK model to the daily data (see https://www.briansutton.uk/?p=1571), it was clear that the model was approaching a critical period over the next couple of weeks: UK […]