{"id":1192,"date":"2020-03-24T19:05:11","date_gmt":"2020-03-24T19:05:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.briansutton.uk\/?p=1192"},"modified":"2020-03-26T13:57:02","modified_gmt":"2020-03-26T13:57:02","slug":"coronavirus-forecasting-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.briansutton.uk\/?p=1192","title":{"rendered":"Coronavirus – forecasting numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A few people might have see the Johns Hopkins University Medical School chart on Covid-19 infection rates in different countries. This particular chart (they have produced many different outputs, some of them interactive world incidence models – see https:\/\/coronavirus.jhu.edu\/map.html<\/a> for more) usefully compares some various national growth rates with straight lines representing different periods over which the number of cases might double – 1 day, 2 days, 3 days and 7 days. It’s a kind of log chart to base 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Johns Hopkins University national trends, log base 2 chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I’ve been beginning to simulate the outcomes for 2 input data items:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

your chosen number of days (x) since the outbreak (defined at 100 cases on day zero to give a base of calculation);<\/p>\n\n\n\n

your chosen rate of growth of cases, expressed by an assumed number of days for doubling the cases number (z), and then;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

the output, the number of cases (y) on day x.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This spreadsheet allows you , in the last columns, to enter x and z in order to see the outcome, y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course this is only an output model, it knows nothing about the veracity of assumptions – but the numbers (y) get VERY large for small doubling periods (z).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Try it. Only change the x and z numbers, please.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ht<\/a>tps:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1kE_pNRlVaFBeY5DxknPgeK5wmXNeBuyslizpvJmoQDY\/edit?usp=sharing<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A few people might have see the Johns Hopkins University Medical School chart on Covid-19 infection rates in different countries. This particular chart (they have produced many different outputs, some of them interactive world incidence models – see https:\/\/coronavirus.jhu.edu\/map.html for more) usefully compares some various national growth rates with straight lines representing different periods over […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Coronavirus - forecasting numbers. A few people might have see the Johns Hopkins University Medical School chart on Covid-19 infection rates in different countries. They show the UK is tracking doubling case every 3 days","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[94,95,101,100],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paDNTg-je","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.briansutton.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1192"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.briansutton.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.briansutton.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.briansutton.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.briansutton.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1192"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.briansutton.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1192\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1205,"href":"https:\/\/www.briansutton.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1192\/revisions\/1205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.briansutton.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.briansutton.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.briansutton.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}