{"id":3408,"date":"2020-07-06T12:24:08","date_gmt":"2020-07-06T12:24:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.briansutton.uk\/?p=3408"},"modified":"2020-07-18T22:47:54","modified_gmt":"2020-07-18T22:47:54","slug":"coronavirus-modelling-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.briansutton.uk\/?p=3408","title":{"rendered":"Coronavirus modelling update"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Introduction<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

In my previous post<\/a> on June 28th, I covered the USA vs. Europe Coronavirus pandemic situations; herd immunity, and the effects of various interventions on it, particularly as envisioned by the Imperial College Covid-19 response team<\/a>; and the current forecasts for cases and deaths in the UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have now updated the forecasts, as it was apparent that during the month of June, there had been a slight increase in the forecast for UK deaths. Worldometers’ forecast<\/a> had increased, and also the reported UK numbers were now edging above the forecast in my own model, which had been tracking well as a forecast (if very slightly pessimistically) until the beginning of June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This might be owing both to informal public relaxation of lockdown behaviour, and also to formal UK Government relaxations in some intervention measures since the end of May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Re-forecast<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

I have now reforecast my model with a slightly lower intervention effectiveness (83% instead of 83.5% since lockdown on 23rd March), and, while still slightly below reported numbers, it is nearly on track (although with the reporting inaccuracy each weekend, it’s not practical to try to track every change).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My long term outlook for deaths is now for 46,421 instead of 44,397, still below the Worldometers<\/a> number (which has increased to 47,924 from 43,962). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are the comparative charts – first, the reported deaths (the orange curve) vs. modelled deaths (the blue curve), linear axes, as of July 6th.<\/p>\n\n\n\n